The Ol Nutter Almanac 2023

 

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2023

                                          

Days Predicted:  20-25 
Days to Date:  27

The Days:  1) 6/29...102.  2) 6/30...106   3) 7/1...110.  4) 7/2...111  5) 7/11...101  6) 7/13...100.  7) 7/14...105   8) 7/15...108  9) 7/16...111   10)  7/17...105  11) 7/19...100  12). 7/20...104. 13) 7/21...109/68

14) 7/22...107. 15)  7/23...102 16) 7/25...100. 17)  7/31...100  18) 8/5...101. 19) 8/6...104   20) 8/7..104

21) 8/13...102  22) 8/14...103. 23)  8/15..107  24) 8/16...109  25) 8/17...106  26). 8/24...100  27)  8/28...100

Recent Summer Highs by Year - as a piece of curiosity, here is a handy dandy reference for the last few summers that may be of interest

2022    111    7/2

2021    113    7/10

2020    110    9/6

2019    106    7/28....8/5

2018    107    7/25

Interesting Trivia - The National Weather Service says that our average hottest day falls on 7/19. I have ZERO idea how they make that calculation but, "Hey! They are scientists so they must be right, RIGHT?"   

8/31 UPDATE - believe it or not, the high tomorrow is to be 78 degrees. WHOA!....THAT is a rare, random mid-September number. We should bump back up to the 80's but, if the summer is "shut down" for this year? It's been pretty darn sweet!  27 is still HISTORICALLY high number of 100 degree days if you go back before 2016 but its the second lowest of number of them since then. 

8/19 UPDATE - HEY...I have provided 15 years of links here. The last little stretch since last update? Yeah, it's August. We are now likely to hit over 30 this year. YES, Sept has to be included. It always has. 

2008-2105, we averaged 14 days at 100 or above.  2016 - 2023 (and we aren't done yet)...over 34. Just the facts, folks

8/9 UPDATE -  though the prediction this year was a bit of a spitball, it MAY not end up being far off. The prediction for the rest of August would land us right within range. I KNOW!!!.."the forecast"..like that means anything. On top of that, September bit us in the bum HARD  last year. Hey, I will just enjoy TODAY. The average for today is 94 and we may not even get to 90.  FORE!!!...watch out for my errant tee shots!

8/1 UPDATE - OK, we got through July. June was rather mild...July was rather brutal. The average June temp was 4-5 degrees below normal. The average July high temp was about 3 degrees higher than the last 5 years. 15 of 17 days at 100 or above came in July. August is looking good in the near future. We shall see and remember that September was the killer hot month last year

7/22 UPDATE - here we go! This is more like what we have become accustomed to. After that LOVELY June, July is coming on like a scorned wife sniffing alimony! We even lit a big fatty yesterday and smoked it up to 109. A couple of more are on the way until we hit a "cooling trend" with only upper 90's in the front windshield.

7/12 UPDATE - well...well..well...LOOK AT US!!! 12 days into July and just 4 days at the Century mark or higher! That is more like summers I recall from my youth AND the early days of when I started this almanac. Keep in mind, I started the formal almanac after years of subjective suspicions based on fairly predictable summer weather. We are about to hit 5 days in triple digits. To hear the news, it is like the coming of armageddon. In reality, it is just normal.

7/3 UPDATE - what a lovely surprise. I didn't check but this may be the longest time since the Ol Nutter Almanac has existed between original posting and an update. THAT is how pleasant June has been. The month closes out averaging about 4-5 degrees lower in the average daily high/low than the last 5 year average for the month of June. We may get an additional day or two of century level heat. Things will then back down and finish the week in the 80's as a high.  Over the past 4 BRUTAL years, we average about 4.3 days of 100 or above for June compared to 2 this year. It's a wonderful start if you HATE SUPER HOT weather (yeah, that would be me). July and August are the bears, however, so let's not get too excited!

OK...here we go again - all these years later. Yep, there was a time when a degree of science made this a bit of a predictable tool.

The RADICAL SHIFT - of temps being consistently higher since 2016 have rendered the predictive tool a bit useless

Yet - I remain optimistic.  Usually, based on the temps over Memorial Day weekend, I would call it a 10-15 days of 100 or more. I've bumped it by 10 due to this "hot spell" we have been in.  I am HOPING this is the summer we return to a degree of normalcy

2023 Ol Nutter Almanac    20 t0 25 days predicted...27 actual

2022 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted...49 actual 

2021 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted....41 actual
2020 Ol Nutter Almanac    17 to 22 days predicted ...36 actual
2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2022

                                          

Days Predicted:  25-30 
Days to Date:  49

The Days:  1)6/10..103 2) 6/11..100  3) 6/21..104 4) 6/22....101 5) 6/23...102. 6) 6/24..103 7) 6/25...104   8) 6/26...104  9) 6/27...105.  10)  6/28...103  11) 7/10...101. 12) 7/11...105 13) 7/12...101 14) 7/14...100. 15) 7/15...100.  16) 7/16...106.  17) 7/17...104 18) 7/18...103 19) 7/19...102.   20)  7/20...104 

21) 7/21...103  22) 7/22...102 23) 7/23...100  24) 7/24...103. 25) 7/28...101 26) 8/2...103 27) 8/3...104 28) 8/4...103  29) 8/14...101. 30) 8/15...104.  31)  8/16...107. 32) 8/18...105  33) 8/19...104  34) 8/20...106. 35) 8/22...101 36) 8/23...102. 37)  8/24...103  38)  8/26....100  39) 8/30...101  40) 8/31...103. 41) 9/1...108 42)  9/2...109  43) 9/3...105  44)  9/4...106. 45)  9/5...113  46)  9/6...116 47)  9/7...111  48) 9/8....112   49) 9/9...106 

9/12 UPDATE -  it is about time to close up shop for another year of the Almanac. I'll keep it open just in case we get that "Indian summer".  WE BETTER NOT!!! We have had enough. Nothing scorching is in the forecast but, at this point, I take nothing for granted.  

9/5/22 UPDATE - this is going to be disappointing in ONE way as we speak. IF the forecast for the next week and the following is correct, we will end up with 49 days over 100. I mean...come on. Can't we get that one more in and round it off to 50?

9/1/22 UPDATE - WOW! It is incredible what lies in front of us for the next week. It is highly likely we are going to get the number of century temps to 45-47.  This is FAR HIGHER than the record set last year. I'll get you some actual average numbers in the weeks to come as we wrap up this extraordinary year

8/24/22 UPDATE - 5 out of the last 7 have hit those tripledee digits since I threw up the hands. We'll test it again today. Maybe one more this month. Then, we shall start cruising it down into fall. Yep, it is time to get excited. As much as I dread the middle of May, I am AMPING up now getting ready for the best season! NOW is the time to MojoUP!!!

8/16/2022 UPDATE -  OK, we have now entered the "screw it" zone! Really hot weather is not my favorite. I spend a bit of May dreading the summer. A funny thing has now happened along with my climate change. I never get used to the heat but, about now, I get a "go for it" attitude. "It's been this hot, let's let her burn and hit a record! Let's surpass other years!"  

We have more hundy days looking at us in the upcoming week.

8/1//2022 UPDATE - the hottest month historically is in the books. Not a lot of 100 degrees in the immediate forecast. Who knows? We could keep it under the 30. The average temperature is a bit cooler than the average of the last 4 summers. I see that as an extremely positive note

7/23/2022 UPDATE - nine straight days at 100 or more....IMPRESSIVE!!! In THEORY, we should get a day or two off pretty soon and ONLY be in upper 90's. There is a decent chance, however, that we could go another 9 days at the century level. To that I would say, "let's just go for it!" What the heck! Let's make it a big and burly summer! 

7/12/2022 UPDATE. - the end of June was a RIPPER.  We got a nice little respite at the beginning of July. Even with the last few days over 100, we are running 5 to 6 degrees cooler this July than the last four summer's average.

6/21/2022  UPDATE - it WAS a hopeful start. We'll toss another triple in today and probably 5-6 more in by the next update

6/1/2022....Well...here we go again - for another year of what has pretty much become an effort of futility. The climate change we have experienced for 6 straight years has DESTROYED the previous model for predictability regarding days at 100 or above in Roseville, CA. All temps are validated by Weather.com. 

We had an extremely enjoyable Memorial Day weekend - in another time, it would be a 10-15 days forecast.  We all know that ship hit the seas 6 years ago.  

This will be going out on a limb - and a bit of wishful thinking. Let's call this year 25-30 again. Wow! Its hard to believe I am HOPING for ONLY 25 days of 100. My personal preference is for 0 to 12 . 

2021 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted....41 actual
2020 Ol Nutter Almanac    17 to 22 days predicted ...36 actual
2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2021

                                         

Days Predicted:  25 -30
Days to Date:  41

The DAYS  (as reported by Weather.com for Roseville, CA 95678)

1) 6/1...105 2) 6/2...101  3) 6/3...102  4) 6/17...109  5) 6/18...110  7) 6/19...107  8) 6/20...105  9) 6/26...103  10) 6/27...101 11) 6/28...102  12) 6/29...102  13) 7/8...105. 14) 7/9...111 15) 7/10...113 16) 7/11...110 17) 7/12...101  18) 7/17...100  19) 7/18...103.  20) 7/19....103.  21) 7/22....100  22) 7/23...104 23) 7/24...103 24) 7/25...103 25) 8/1...101 26) 8/3...103  27) 8/4...100. 28) 8/9...100   29) 8/10...103 

30) 8/11...106  31) 8/14...105.   32) 8/16...103   33) 8/28...101   34) 8/29...105  35) 8/30....104  36) 9/5....101  37) 9/6...104 38)  9/7...106   39). 9/8...107 40) 9/9...103  9/14...100

9/10 UPDATE -  WE DID IT!!! 40 days over 100 from June 1!!! Yesterday added a little surprise so I just had to congratulate all of us....as IF we had anything to do with this unprecedented number of triple digit days!

9/9 Update - my usual methodology is to start keeping track of days over 100 as of June 1. I know, not the official start to summer. I then go to the official END date of summer (around 9/22, depending on the year).  We have a bit of a cooling spell coming in after we just receive 4 COOKING days in a row. While I am not rooting for one more day over 100, it appears we will fall one day short of 40 days.  Now, keep in mind, we had a few days over 100 back on the last 3 days of May. Those don't fall under my methodology. They are worthy to acknowledge though they don't "count" as I use May as a PREDICTIVE  month and not for statistical purposes. 

9/7 Update -  the smoke from the fires gave us a little time off from the high temps...till it didn't. This might be the hottest summer yet. I KNOW...summer starts June 22 or so and goes to Sept 22 or so. Me? As long as it is still hot, it's summer.  We'll add another 100+ for today when it's published.  We could get to 40 days (See y 7/24 update below).  

8/22 Update - August is likely to "flame out" as we have hit a "cool spell" due to the constant overcast of smoke.  Temperatures have dropped to below average temperatures. 

8/11 Update - August is definitely "stepping up."  With the forecast for the upcoming week, we are going to push it to 34 or so.  I was thinking it would be tough to get to 40. It may require tossing in a few September days!

8/3 Update -  August is disappointing me. No hundies in the 7 day forecast. While I LOVE THAT for living and existing, I think we really need 40 days to get people's attention to our water problem. The hotter it is, the more evaporation.  Having water involves rainfall (DUH)...but it also involves evaporation of what we have.  Let your lawns die here in Cali, people. Grass is weed.

7/24 update to the below - it's not even the end of July....and I say, "let it burn! Let's get some attention. Let's make people get thirsty re: how serious this is."  I think we can hit 40 days over 100!

If you typed an average high for Roseville, CA into Google, it would tell you 94 for July. I always wondered , "how far are they averaging back?"...so, I started keeping my own stats.  The last 3 years? It averaged 96....and those were HOT years.  This July so far?....100

6/1/2021......Here we go again! - back for another year of "spot on" predictions about the weather for my community regarding the heat of the summer. Climate change can no longer be ignored and this year will have adjustments made for it. 

This year - with a scorching end of May, including the key Memorial Day weekend that saw blistering temps, we have to "bump it up" this year.  Usually, we would make a call for "over 20 days" of 100 or above. It's time to refine it this year.

As much as I HATE to say this - it is going to be a brutal summer......25-30 days at 100 plus.

Quite frankly? - it wouldn't surprise me to see us test 40 days this year. We did 36 last year and it's already been hotter going into this summer

2021 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted....41 actual
2020 Ol Nutter Almanac    17 to 22 days predicted ...36 actual
2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2020

Days Predicted:  17-22
Days to Date:  36

The DAYS  (as reported by Weather.com for Roseville, CA 95678)

1) 6/3 ..102  2) 6/4..102 3) 6/19...100 4)6/22...102 5) 6/23...101  6) 6/24...102 7) 6/25...103.
 8) 6/26...104 9) 7/5...101 10) 7/9...100   11) 7/10...102.   12) 7/11....105    13)7/12 ...106  14) 7/18...101  15) 7/26...102  16) 7/27...102  17) 7/28... 103  18) 7/29...102.  19) 7/30....100 
20) 7/31...100  21) 8/2...101  22)  8/3...101 23) 8/9...102 24) 8/10...102  25) 8/12...101 26) 8/13...102 27) 8/14...107  28) 8/15...107  29) 8/16...108  30) 8/17...102.  31) 8/18...108.  32) 8/19....103.  33) 8/22...100 34) 9/5...103  35) 9/6...110  36) 9/7....106 

9/4 UPDATE - caught a real break in the last 10 days.....yeah, when official, we will tack on day number 34 today.....and day 35 and 36 the next two days.....111?...will it happen?...with smoke in the air? I will be your "man on the ground" in the midst of it!!! When do I stop counting the 100 degree days anyway? It seems like it should start on Memorial Day and end on Labor Day. I'll have to look back on it. I am SO DONE with this summer!!!!

8/24 UPDATE - caught a "break" since last week's update. It SHOULD have been all days over 100 since my last report.  We have had MASSIVE fires.  These have created smoke clouds and horrendous air quality.....and just a general feeling of "grossness" in the atmosphere. But, it did keep up barely under a 100 on a few of the days since last week.

8/17 UPDATE - I am calling it official.  With the predictions of the upcoming 7 days, we are going to have more days over 100 than have EVER been recorded formally in Almanac history!!! YAY for us!!!  I recall framing houses back in the summer of 1984 or 1985. I want to think we had 35 days over a hundred there in the Sacramento area....BRUTAL!!! We will easily get to 36 in a week....and we will still have a week of August to go!!!

8/12 UPDATE - WE ARE COOKED!!! I haven't even recorded today yet and we have a possibility of 8 or more days over 100 pointed straight at our head! 2017 had the most days over 100 since I started doing this. 2020...on top of everything else....might just throw in the "hottest summer in recent history" as the cherry on top! 


8/4 UPDATE - OK....we are there....NO MORE DAYS of 100!!! Hooray!!! ........OK....like that is going to happen. We are at the beginning of August.  Now, it is just a question of weather this summer is going to rival 2016-2018.

7/10 UPDATE - Tossed 3 more on in the last 11 days.....and 3 more AT LEAST coming BAM BAM BAM.  June had more 100 degree days than last year BUT the average high and low for the day were about a degree less than last year....so ....well.....that's something!

6/29 UPDATE - OK....8 days through the end of June. WE only had 5 through the end of June last year when we ended up with 23 days. It looks like we will be in the clear for at least the first week of July. July is always the brutal month.

5/30/2020 - It's Almanac time again! Yep, as WORTHLESS as it's been for the last four years, I am STILL going to do it again.

This year - I think there just has to be a calibration for the fact that we may be having some Global Warming.

I didn't say it was "man made" - that can be a bit subjective (nope...I trust scientists about as much as politicians)

That said  - if it is "man made" one would think things might cool down a little this year too. All of us are staying inside, not driving as much, not as much manufacturing. So, I gotta figure that in as well.

Factoring all that in.....The Almanac is going to call for 17-22 days of 100 degrees or more as reported by Weather.com

2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 Actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2019

Days Predicted:  10
Days to Date:    23

The DAYS  (as reported by Weather.com for Roseville, CA 95678)

1) 6/10 - 101  2) 6/11 - 103  3) 6/12 - 103 4) 6/18 - 104  5) 6/19 - 100 6) 7/12- 100
7) 7/13 - 102. 8) 7/22 - 101  9) 7/23 -101 10) 7/24 - 102 11) 7/25 - 103  12) 7/26 - 100
13) 7/27 - 103  14) 7/28 - 106  15) 8/3 - 100 16) 8/4 -100 17) 8/14 - 103  18) 8/15 - 105 19) 8/23 - 100  20) 8/24 - 100  21) 8/25 - 102  22) 8/26 - 102  23) 8/27 - 102

FINAL UPDATE -  well, we knew it was a long shot any time you predict 10 days or less. Historically, 23 is still a lot of days. It was less than the last three years by a bunch! Yet, it was dramatically higher than the 7 years that proceeded those.  The last three were the hottest on record!
Our last 4 summers have been dramatically warmer.  June, July, and August had average highs that were 4, 2, and 3 degrees respectively higher than the traditional average for those months.


UPDATE 8/23 - well.....more of a pounding over the last 2.5 weeks...but not as bad as it sometimes is. We have a few more century days looking out the windshield. This is going to be and interesting yea to "deck up" against the last few when it is all done. We had that one stretch of 7 days in a row starting July 22....till then, July, the hottest month usually, had been fairly tame. It went SCREAMING out this year!!!

UPDATE 8/4 -the almanac took on a little heat since the last update. Hate those 100 degree days...I mean...yeah, you have to draw the line SOMEWHERE....but....just one degree less and we would only be at 11 days.

UPDATE 7/24 -  it's been a nice July run. The century mark only hit a couple of times. The official number isn't in for today but we got triple digits....and 4 more on the way. Yep, all 10 days will be used up before the end of July...and then some.  Could we go August without 100? Unlikely. The prediction was bold at the beginning of the year. It could be, with global warming, the traditional guidelines for the Almanac don't apply.


UPDATE 7/11 - it has been awesome to NOT update this thing! We MAY run into the century mark in the next week....but it would be just barely. I can live with that.

UPDATE 6/23 - well...how can the Almanac have a chance? We burned through half the 100 degree days before summer officially started.  July...August...the hot months ahead. LOOKS like a loser...BUT...let's allow it to play out. We don't have anything close to 100 predicted for the next week as we enter the hottest time of year.

UPDATE 6/10 - another week gone by dodging some bullets. This will likely come to an end in the coming week....like when the numbers come in on TODAY and TOMORROW.
UPDATE 6/2 - one week in...nothing close to 100. Though it will get warmer at the end of the coming week, no triple digits on the horizon. "Cool summer...cool summer...cool summer" is my mantra

Here we go again - the last four years of RECORD breaking heat? The Almanac just couldn't predict something like that! Nobody could.

So, on the heels of that - how can the Almanac even THINK about making the prediction it is about to make this year?

Call it crazy - it is going to be an EXTREMELY pleasant summer in our area. Yep, the Almanac just said that despite recent history. It's what the Almanac does. It is all based pseudoscientifically.

This summer - there will be 10 days or LESS (emphasis on the less) of 100 degree days


2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 Actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2017

Days Predicted: 10-14
Days to Date: 34

The Days -  1) 6/16 100  2) 6/17 100  3) 6/18 107  4) 6/19 108 5) 6/20 107  6) 6/21 106  7) 6/22 107  8) 6/23 105  8) 6/24 100 9) 7/6 104 10) 7/7 108  11) 7/8 107  12) 7/9 103  13) 7/10 101  14) 7/15 101
15) 7/16 106  16)7/17 103  17) 7/22 102  18) 7/23  103  19) 7/23 103  20) 7/27 102  21) 7/28 103   22) 7/30 101  23) 7/31 102 24) 8/1 106 25) 8/3 104  26) 8/26 105 27) 8/27 106  28) 8/28  109          29) 8/29  104  30) 8/30 100  31) 8/31  101 32) 9/1 107  33) 9/2  107  34) 9/3  107

Update 9/15 - OK....it's over.  Finally!!!! It was hotter than last year's BAKE!  2018....I can only beg that you be more kind than the last two years.  We'll see you all a bit after Memorial Day 2018

Update 8/31 - well....August WAS kind of nice....until that last week! We closed out the month with 6 days straight in triple digits....after only a couple at the beginning of the month. Man, I am SOOOO hoping we don't catch an indian summer in Sept....ENOUGH!!!

Update 7/22 -  well....we all know July is our hottest month. It DELIVERED on that this year. I think overachievement would be a better word.  August....can you please be nice

Update  7/15 - another heat wave hit the town last week....the Almanac is TOAST again this year. Maybe global warming is really a thing.  This is the third straight year that the Almanac is not even going to be in the ballpark!

Update 7/1 - things have settled down a bit the last few days. But that 6/16 - 6/24 got to everyone! 8 days used up toward the prediction in ONE heat wave.

Update 6/15 -  it's been all good so far.....but we have a heat wave acomin'. This could be brutal

You know the drill - we look at the Memorial Day Weekend weather as our guide

As usual - we will use the reporting by Weather.com as our verification tool.

This year - it was a little trickier....and a bit disappointing to people like me that hate the hot weather.

Yep - I said HATE! Why?  1) I don't like to be hot  2) Everything is more expensive when it's hot.

A bit of a mixed bag - we had that 100 degree day slip in a bit early this year which is of concern. Based purely on Memorial Day weekend, we could be doing less that 10 days of 100 or more. But...I just can't buy it based on last year.

For that reason - we will be looking at 11-15 days at 100 degrees or more.

2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2016

Days Predicted: 15-18
Days to Date: 30

The Days - 
1)5/31...102  
2)6/1...100
3)6/2...100
4)6/3...102
5)6/5....102
6)6/21....101
7)6/25...101
8)6/26...105
9)6/27....107  
10)6/28....107  
11)6/29...104
12) 7/1...101
13) 7/13..101
14) 7/14...104
15) 7/15...102
16) 7/23....104
17) 7/24...107
18) 7/25...103
19) 7/26....106
20) 7/27....108
21) 7/28...107
22) 7/29...107
23)  7/30...104
24) 8/2...102
25) 8/12...101
26) 8/13...103
27) 8/14...104
28) 8/16...101
29) 8/17....102
30) 8/18...100

9/15 Update -  see you next year! Good riddance 2016. I can only say.....YOU SUCKED!

8/30 Update - August was kind of nice/average....nothing SUPER scorching on a one day basis.

7/30 Update -  we hit that darn "end of July wall."  The hottest month was looking OK....up until that last week!

6/29 Update -  and the proverbial CRAP has hit the fan!!! We got SLAMMED this week.  We aren't even to July and the OL Almanac is getting hammered.  The nice HOPE?....if the Almanac holds...we have seen the worst and it's all front end loaded

6/17 Update -  been kinda nice since the last update. Nothing much to say....and...no news is good news

6/10/Update -  off to a hot start....though we saw a little cooldown in the second week of June

5/31/2016...Well....here we go again - time to predict the number of days over 100 degrees in Roseville, CA

You know the drill - we look at the Memorial Day Weekend weather as our guide

As usual - we will use the reporting by Weather.com as our verification tool.

This year - it was a little trickier....and a bit disappointing to people like me that hate the hot weather.

Yep - I said HATE! Why?  1) I don't like to be hot  2) Everything is more expensive when it's hot.

Things looked great - a week before in the forecast. That changed in a hurry. We saw a quick upswing all throughout the weekend and more upswing on the way.

For that reason - we will be looking at 15-18 days at 100 degrees or more. If you look over the years that we have been doing this, it is the most days that I have ever predicted over 100. I'm really hoping I miss the boat this year.

2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2015

Days Predicted:  12 or less
Days to Date:16

The Days - 
1) 6/8...102
2) 6/12..104
3) 6/25...102
4) 6/26...102
5) 6/30....104
6) 7/1...102
7) 7/4....101
8) 7/28....102
9) 7/29....105
10) 7/30....104
11) 8/16....103
12) 8/17...104
13) 8/28....101
14) 9/9....102
15) 9/10....104
16) 9/11....101

9/23 Final HappyUPdate!!! - that darn September. If not for hat little sneak attack leading up to 9/11, we would have been pretty close to on the money.  Still, the Ol Almanac has a pretty good track record. Masses have come up to me and said, "yeah, cool!!!....but what about the winter. Are we going to get the El Nino that will put a dent in this California drought?"

Hey....the Almanac only covers summer.  Anything predicting the winter would be as wild ass guess as any weather caster would toss out......and they really aren't tossing out anything as we speak other than..."yeah, we are already in El Nino. The only question is will it be mild.....moderate...or extreme."

........sheesh...they sound like politicians.

That's it for 2015.....see ya  Memorial Day 2016!

9/14 HappyUPdate!!! - we have a week to go. No more "nice surprises" in the forecast. Looks like the poor Almanac takes it's worst beating since being officially tracked here (see all results at bottom of page). Hey....weather forecasters regularly miss tomorrow's forecast! It's all good

9/8 HappyUPdate!!! - we have been cruising along....well into Sept....we have only missed by one day. That's pretty good.................BUT.......WHAT THE HECK?!?!?.....We are going to get hit with about 6 days in a row of 100+?!?!?!  Take a look above at "the days"....we had one experience of 3 days in a row....a couple of 2 days in a row.....and now we are going to get 6????...in September???? I cry "FOUL!!!!" It's an aberration!!! It's early on-set "El Nino".  Oh well....even the greatest theories run afoul once in awhile.  AnomalyUP!!!!

8/29 HappyUPdate!!! - doggone it! Where did that 101 come from yesterday? It was only supposed to be 98!!!

8/20 HappyUPdate!!! -  OK, kids....we have hit the point! Yep....we have expired all of our days. Looks like the Ol Almanac is in massive fail. I mean, after all, we have plenty of August left.....

..........yet.....no more 100's in the forecast. September can be mild...but it can sneak in some heaters as well. We shall see

8/1 HappyUPdate!!! - had a little challenge the past week.  THIS may be the first year that the Ol Almanac takes a royal beating........or will it?  We have been here before in the past. Yeah, we just got through our hottest month here.....but only 2 100 days left in the almanac?....and we have to get through all of August? Cmmmmmmmmmmmmm

7/14 HappyUPdate!!! -  well.....we took a little beating right after the last update. Smooth sailing since.  We may be bumping up against A C-Note the next couple of days.  After that, the forecast looks pretty good for July....our hottest month here.

7/1/15 HappyUPdate!!! -  yep....going to get another cooker today....then things will back off again. We will have expired half of our 100 degree days by July 1. Yet, I am sure that if you review previous years (see below)...the almanac has NEVER been significantly disproved.  I like to think...."this much heat so soon only means we are front-end loaded...and July/August will be kind to us."

6/29/15 HappyUPdate!!! -  the almanac is going to getting a challenge here in late June. We have been there before. We had a couple of "heaters" last week....and looking at a few this week. It is what it is. We will just stay indoors!!!


6/10/15 HappyUPdate!!! - June snuck a little broiler in on us on Monday. May have a couple more to go this week. It's going to be close.  Not to worry.  I'd have to go back to the past files (and I will) but I think this is fairly common.

5/31/15....It's that time of year again - where we begin the prediction of Roseville weather for the summer.

How many days of 100 or above will we have? - that is what the Almanac is all about.

It's all based on the last week of May - if you doubt the predictive qualities....just look at the record below. Yeah....it's pretty darn solid.

It hangs it's "cojones" - way out there beyond what any meteorologist or website will do.

As usual - our verification will be taken off of the reading from weather.com for Roseville, CA

2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2014

Actual Days to Date        14
Predicted Days           11-13

The Days - 1) 6/7...100  2) 6/8...104 3) 6/9.....106 4) 6/10...103 5) 6/30...105 6) 6/13...100 7) 7/14...104  8) 7/25....102  9) 7/27....102 10) 7/29.....100 11) 7/31...102 12) 8/1...105 13) 9/12...102
9/13)...102

9/17/2014 HappyUP!!!date - another successful year for the Almanac.  It only missed by one day and, only that, was due to a freaky couple of days that snuck in there just over a week before summer ends. We have a few days to go before the official end of summer but it appears nothing major is in the forecast.  We are pretty much locked and loaded!

9/11/2014 HappyUP!!!date - look where we were on 7/24.....the Almanac was drawing a LOT of criticism.  Up until today, it looked like the Almanac survived all that and was totally in the clear. Now....we have a weekend to sweat out. Crazy weather...every day the forecasters have been nudging their prognostications up. Sheesh...how easy is that job?  They change their minds hourly. The Almanac lays it down one time.....for over three months!!!  No matter what, it will be very close this year. Additionally, I will be overjoyed to see Autumn come rolling in.

8/25/2014 HappyUP!!!date - I have to admit......I was getting some flack back in July for how hot this summer was and......

....for how bad the almanac would fail - darn haters!!! Why ya gotta be that way?  Who knows what will happen? We still have a month of summer to go.  The Almanac is going to be a lot closer than it looked a short time ago as we have NOTHING in the 100's in the immediate forecast. NICE!!!

8/10/2014 HappyUP!!!date - we have had a VERY nice respite from the heat over the last 9 days...and clear sailing ahead.  In all liklihood, the Ol Nutter Alm is doomed this year....but... But .....BUT....if it holds up this year....WOW!!!...that would be something!

7/24/2014 Update - not a lot to report since last....a couple of days into the triple digits.  For goodness sakes, we have even gotten some rain the last few nights...in July....whaaaaaaaat?!?!?! Now....we are staring down the barrell of FIVE straight days of 100 or more! Oh my....that would basically blow the Almanac up this year..........or........just maybe........guarantee a very cool August with nothing up in the hell zone!

7/6/2014 Update - looks like we will be notching another 100 degree one today and tomorrow....things cool down a bit after that.  One thing that is not in the forecast but that would be appreciated is some random heavy rain! (don't hold your breath)

6/23/2014 HappyUP!!!date - after an initial challenge....been in the clear...and in the clear for another week per forecast


6/9/2014 Update - we never like to see an early heat spell hear at the Almanac.  Looks like we are going to get a good toast on today.....with things settling down a bit tomorrow (hopefully!)

5/28/2014.....Here we go again - the Ol Nutter Almanac 2014 edition.  You can get a recap of all previous posted years through the links below

For those new to this annual feature - we predict the number of 100 degree or more days for Roseville/Sactamento, CA based on the weather of Memorial Day weekend.

The weather on the predictor Memorial Day Weekend - wasn't blistering.....but it wasn't cool either. These are the toughest to make a call here in May.  There is a piece of me that says I should bump this up to 15 days of 100 degrees or less...but I don't think that is taking enough risk

As usual - our measurement for the number of 100 degree days will be taken off the Weather.com website for Roseville, CA

2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2013

It's that time of year again!!! You ALL want to know....just what kind

of summer are we looking at....and...as usual...my system is 100% 

guaranteed to be somewhat reliable!

THE CALL - we will have 13 days or less of 100 degree days this summer in the Sacramento/Roseville area....and it would NOT shock me if we have 10 days or less

The Days - 1) 6/7....103  2) 6/8...108 3) 6/28...103 4) 6/29....105 5) 6/30...106 6) 7/1...104

7) 7/2...103 8) 7/3...104  9) 7/4....109  10)...8/19...101...11) 9/8...100 12) 9/9,,,101  

Final HappyUP!!!!date - let's just seal it off for the year now that summer has passed....and all of us pay homage to the WONDER that IS.........Ye Ol Nutter Almanac!!!  Always guaranteed to be....somewhat reliable! (Though....in looking at it's track record....seems you can pretty much take it to the bank!)

9/18/13 HappyUP!!!date - summer isn't officially over yet...still have a few more days to duck....but nothing in the forecast predicting anything close to the century mark.  After that testy hot spell in early July, it appears that the Ol Nutter Almanac will once again prove it's "science."

9/6/13 HappyUP!!!date - yet another week of nothing over 100.  We have a call for some 100 in the next few days.  After that hot spell in July, it looked like the Ol Nutter Almanac was BLOWN OUT! We'll see

8/30/13 HappyUP!!!date - not another 100 degree day in the past....and not another one predicted for the next week.  Niiiiizzzze

8/20/13 HappyUP!!!date - doggone it...snuck in another 100 degree day yesterday.  Cooler days ahead in the forecast though

8/14/13 HappyUP!!!date - another gorgeous week in the books.  We may test 100 today but the call is for 99....and then some cooling.  Who knows if the Almanac will be right on the money this year?....but, other than that little spell at the end of June/beginning of July, it's been a VERY pleasant summer.

8/5 HappyUP!!!date - another great week for the Almanac....with cool summer weather planned for the week ahead.  It's going to be a stretch but the Almanac, which was written off a month ago, may be proving itself yet again.

7/28 HappyUP!!!date - we were knocking at the door since last update...but nothing cracked the century mark since that sizzling heat wave of early July.  HappyUP!!!

7/19 HappyUP!!!date - only 99 today...whew...that was close!!!

7/12 HappyUP!!!date - a couple of 99 degree days here pre weather.com....but nothing else to add to the total

7/6 HappyUP!!!date - DONE with the heat snap....the Ol Almanac took a beating over the last week.  IF the almanac can keep up it's fairly impeccable record, 4 more days of 100 or more would be just lovely!

6/30 UPDATE - four triple digit days down.........and a whole week more coming at us!  Hmmmm....what if....juuuuuuuhhhhhhhssssssst what if?.....we expire all of the 100 degree days in this little "hot pop" and the Almanac is still correct for the year?  THAT would be niiiizzzzze!

6/25 UPDATE- uh oh.......the unthinkable could happen! The Ol Nutter Almanac may be looking at it's first major miss since it has been formally published. Beginning this Thursday, per Accuweather.com, we are looking at 15 straight days of 100 degrees or more.  

While it happens here in the valley, a 2 week heat wave like this has not hit us in years.  Lots of implications to that which will be far more significant than Ol Nutter having an off year.

6/22 UPDATE - I just praise my CAJONES....for even trying to do something NO meteorolgists would even dare to do...predict 100 degree days in Sac for the summer year after year.  I give myself a little extra juice cuz, as I made the prediction, I was looking at a BLAZING predicted weekend. I had room to fudge it a couple of days....it would have even been acceptable under my model...but I didn't. I still took the risk. We sit here on 6/22....only 2 days over 100 now....and we are IN summer as of yesterday.

6/5 UPDATE - we got by the first Almanac weekend without hitting those dreaded triple digits. We won't be as lucky this weekend.  Fri/Sat/Sun are all going to be Blazing!

Tricky call - this year.  The Ol Nutter Almanac always goes off the Jazz Festival Weekend weather.

This year - it was problematic. The Almanac is geared to go off of the weather toward the end of May. This year's festival fell as far away from the end of the month that it could.

It rained - on the last day of the fest.  THAT means 10 days or less of 100 degree weather. THAT is a BOLD call (which has been right in the past many times).

Yet - we are turning around and staring at 100 degrees on the following weekend....CRAZY.  100 degrees on festival weekend means 20 days of 100 or more.

I did an extrapolation - it would be a NO BRAINER (tho still risky) to call 15 days or less of 100 degrees this summer.....

...I won't do - the easy way out....even though it cost me NAILING the exact number of days when I did the same thing last year.  

THE CALL - we will have 13 days or less of 100 degree days this summer in the Sacramento/Roseville area....and it would NOT shock me if we have 10 days or less

As always - the measurement will be the weather.com website for Roseville, California

Apply that sunscreen, kids - if you are someone that needs to.  

It will be a WONDERFULLY -  mild summer in the hot valley!

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2012

 "GUARANTEED to be somewhat reliable"

The Days - 1) 6/4...101 2) 6/15...100 3) 6/16...105  4) 6/17.....101 5) 7/10....100  6) 7/11...103  7) 7/12....103 8) 7/21...101 9) 7/22....103 10) 8/8....100  11) 8/9....103 12) 8/10...103  13) 8/11...105 14) 8/12....102 15) 8/13....105

Update 9/30/2012 - we close out the books.....it was a warm September.....a record for days over 90....but we didn't hit 100 one time in Sept. Summer ended 9?22...didn't begin until June 22...yet...we have "credit" to 4 days before summer officially began.....and let it run until Sept 30 as a Summer definition.....Hmmmmmm.....WOW.....maybe the almanac was right on again IF we only keep summer to the official summer days.....yep....I declare it....ANOTHER winning forecast!

Update 9/6/2012 - well, it appears that there are broiling days in the forecast. That little heat spell from 8/8-8/13 did us in this year from being right on the money.  I'd have to declare the Almanac as a pretty effective weather picker......as usual. It's as effective as any forecasting I've ever seen.....let alone long term forecasting

Update 8/22/2012 - still just a 2 scant days over the prediction........hey....that's not bad. What weather forecaster would step in front of a camera and predict a Sacramento summer?  No 100 days in sight yet. AND....as a reminder...the almanac starts on Memorial Day weekend....far before the end of Summer....but it does shut down when summer officially ends.

Update 8/14/2012 - well, it's official now.  A tough year for The Ol' Almanac. I'm not sure what today's temp will get to but it will get over the century mark.  13 days or less was the call. Looks like we will be ducking under the 100 mark for the next week or so.

Update 8/9/2012 - it looks like the Almanc will fail miserably in the first time since it has been published. The original call was 13 days of 100 or less.....we are at 10.....with 6 days predicted in a row of the temps that we hate here in this area when they get strung one after another. Oh well....considering it is a weather prediction.....and it's only been wrong....predicting summer highs.....the almanac is OK with that.  Onward to next year!

Update 7/27/2012 - though the average number of days over 100 around here is 21.....the last four years have averaged 44.  People say, "Nutster, you have too much time on your hands." Well.....people have different interests.  It's also nice because I have all the stats RIGHT here at NuttersNotes. This one interests me because there is one thing I KNOW from living around this place for so long.  When we get ALL THOSE DAYS over 100.......20+.......people UN-HappyUP!!! and all you hear is, "it's so dang hot."  I talk to people from other parts of the state, "it's so hot up there in Sacramento."  I now counter........well...........not really..........not for the last 5 years.  It assists me in being an Ambassador for our GREAT place to live.

Update 7/26/2012 - two more on the books since the last report. The rest of July is looking good for under 100.  We have all of August to get through.  We'll see how the Ol Almanac holds up this year. Short of a BLAZING August, it will be another pleasant We were only 89-90 today and looking the same for tomorrow. Sacramento summer.....well under the average days over 100 of 22.

Update 7/16/2012 - we got a few hot ones since last checking in. We are up to 7. Global warming to upend "da almanac"?

Update 7/9/2012 - a whole bunch of nothing to report.........by the next time I report, due to the jet stream moving north, the days could easily go from 4 to 9. We are into the hottest month of the year...with the second one to come. Will this be the first time since going "on-line" that the Almanac may be wrong?

Update 6/21/2012 - wow!!! a little heat spell.... 4 days at 100 or above....and summer hasn't even started yet...............................but........wink.........cooling trend on the way. Love/trust the almanac

Update 6/11/2012 - not much to report....still at 1....caught some 90's....looking at 2 weeks between 90-100........hoping we can keep it under the triple digits until July

Update 6/4/2012 - we got hit with 101 on Friday to welcome in June.  Funny....101 on Friday....69 and raining today, Monday.

ORIGINAL POST 5/29/2012
From 1971-2000 - the average number of days over 100 is 22.  This makes the accuracy of the Ol Nutter Almanac all the more impressive.

The weather this last weekend - would dictate a prediction of 10 days or less of 100 degree days in Sacramento (per weather.com).

Yet - a prediction like that is craaaaaaaaaaaaazy...........

Though it was correctly predicted - last year.

We can't jeopordize the almanac - two years in a row.  15 days or less is assured........

......but - we'll up the ante a bit.  Here now is your official prediction for 2012........(drumroll)

There will be 13 or less days of 100 degrees or more in Sacramemento (per weather.com) for the summer of 2012 - and, for our purposes, summer starts TODAY.

And, as always - the Ol Nutter Almanac is GUARANTEED to be somewhat reliable

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual
2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual
2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual