Friday, September 10, 2021

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2021

                                         


Days Predicted:  25 -30
Days to Date:  41


The DAYS  (as reported by Weather.com for Roseville, CA 95678)

1) 6/1...105 2) 6/2...101  3) 6/3...102  4) 6/17...109  5) 6/18...110  7) 6/19...107  8) 6/20...105  9) 6/26...103  10) 6/27...101 11) 6/28...102  12) 6/29...102  13) 7/8...105. 14) 7/9...111 15) 7/10...113 16) 7/11...110 17) 7/12...101  18) 7/17...100  19) 7/18...103.  20) 7/19....103.  21) 7/22....100  22) 7/23...104 23) 7/24...103 24) 7/25...103 25) 8/1...101 26) 8/3...103  27) 8/4...100. 28) 8/9...100   29) 8/10...103 
30) 8/11...106  31) 8/14...105.   32) 8/16...103   33) 8/28...101   34) 8/29...105  35) 8/30....104  36) 9/5....101  37) 9/6...104 38)  9/7...106   39). 9/8...107 40) 9/9...103  9/14...100

9/10 UPDATE -  WE DID IT!!! 40 days over 100 from June 1!!! Yesterday added a little surprise so I just had to congratulate all of us....IF we had anything to do with this unprecedented number of triple digit days!

9/9 Update - my usual methodology is to start keeping track of days over 100 as of June 1. I know, not the official start to summer. I then go to the official END date of summer (around 9/22, depending on the year).  We have a bit of a cooling spell coming in after we just receive 4 COOKING days in a row. While I am not rooting for one more day over 100, it appears we will fall one day short of 40 days.  Now, keep in mind, we had a few days over 100 back on the last 3 days of May. Those don't fall under my methodology. They are worthy to acknowledge though they don't "count" as I use May as a PREDICTIVE  month and not for statistical purposes. 


9/7 Update -  the smoke from the fires gave us a little time off from the high temps...till it didn't. This might be the hottest summer yet. I KNOW...summer starts June 22 or so and goes to Sept 22 or so. Me? As long as it is still hot, it's summer.  We'll add another 100+ for today when it's published.  We could get to 40 days (See y 7/24 update below).  

8/22 Update - August is likely to "flame out" as we have hit a "cool spell" due to the constant overcast of smoke.  Temperatures have dropped to below average temperatures. 

8/11 Update - August is definitely "stepping up."  With the forecast for the upcoming week, we are going to push it to 34 or so.  I was thinking it would be tough to get to 40. It may require tossing in a few September days!

8/3 Update -  August is disappointing me. No hundies in the 7 day forecast. While I LOVE THAT for living and existing, I think we really need 40 days to get people's attention to our water problem. The hotter it is, the more evaporation.  Having water involves rainfall (DUH)...but it also involves evaporation of what we have.  Let your lawns die here in Cali, people. Grass is weed.

7/24 update to the below - it's not even the end of July....and I say, "let it burn! Let's get some attention. Let's make people get thirsty re: how serious this is."  I think we can hit 40 days over 100!

If you typed an average high for Roseville, CA into Google, it would tell you 94 for July. I always wondered , "how far are they averaging back?"...so, I started keeping my own stats.  The last 3 years? It averaged 96....and those were HOT years.  This July so far?....100

6/1/2021......Here we go again! - back for another year of "spot on" predictions about the weather for my community regarding the heat of the summer. Climate change can no longer be ignored and this year will have adjustments made for it. 

This year - with a scorching end of May, including the key Memorial Day weekend that saw blistering temps, we have to "bump it up" this year.  Usually, we would make a call for "over 20 days" of 100 or above. It's time to refine it this year.

As much as I HATE to say this - it is going to be a brutal summer......25-30 days at 100 plus.

Quite frankly? - it wouldn't surprise me to see us test 40 days this year. We did 36 last year and it's already been hotter going into this summer



2020 Ol Nutter Almanac    17 to 22 days predicted - 36 actual
2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 Actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual
2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual
2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual
2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual
2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual
2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual
2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual