The Ol Nutter Almanac 2023

 

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2023

                                          

Days Predicted:  20-25 
Days to Date:  27

The Days:  1) 6/29...102.  2) 6/30...106   3) 7/1...110.  4) 7/2...111  5) 7/11...101  6) 7/13...100.  7) 7/14...105   8) 7/15...108  9) 7/16...111   10)  7/17...105  11) 7/19...100  12). 7/20...104. 13) 7/21...109/68

14) 7/22...107. 15)  7/23...102 16) 7/25...100. 17)  7/31...100  18) 8/5...101. 19) 8/6...104   20) 8/7..104

21) 8/13...102  22) 8/14...103. 23)  8/15..107  24) 8/16...109  25) 8/17...106  26). 8/24...100  27)  8/28...100

Recent Summer Highs by Year - as a piece of curiosity, here is a handy dandy reference for the last few summers that may be of interest

2022    111    7/2

2021    113    7/10

2020    110    9/6

2019    106    7/28....8/5

2018    107    7/25

Interesting Trivia - The National Weather Service says that our average hottest day falls on 7/19. I have ZERO idea how they make that calculation but, "Hey! They are scientists so they must be right, RIGHT?"   

8/31 UPDATE - believe it or not, the high tomorrow is to be 78 degrees. WHOA!....THAT is a rare, random mid-September number. We should bump back up to the 80's but, if the summer is "shut down" for this year? It's been pretty darn sweet!  27 is still HISTORICALLY high number of 100 degree days if you go back before 2016 but its the second lowest of number of them since then. 

8/19 UPDATE - HEY...I have provided 15 years of links here. The last little stretch since last update? Yeah, it's August. We are now likely to hit over 30 this year. YES, Sept has to be included. It always has. 

2008-2105, we averaged 14 days at 100 or above.  2016 - 2023 (and we aren't done yet)...over 34. Just the facts, folks

8/9 UPDATE -  though the prediction this year was a bit of a spitball, it MAY not end up being far off. The prediction for the rest of August would land us right within range. I KNOW!!!.."the forecast"..like that means anything. On top of that, September bit us in the bum HARD  last year. Hey, I will just enjoy TODAY. The average for today is 94 and we may not even get to 90.  FORE!!!...watch out for my errant tee shots!

8/1 UPDATE - OK, we got through July. June was rather mild...July was rather brutal. The average June temp was 4-5 degrees below normal. The average July high temp was about 3 degrees higher than the last 5 years. 15 of 17 days at 100 or above came in July. August is looking good in the near future. We shall see and remember that September was the killer hot month last year

7/22 UPDATE - here we go! This is more like what we have become accustomed to. After that LOVELY June, July is coming on like a scorned wife sniffing alimony! We even lit a big fatty yesterday and smoked it up to 109. A couple of more are on the way until we hit a "cooling trend" with only upper 90's in the front windshield.

7/12 UPDATE - well...well..well...LOOK AT US!!! 12 days into July and just 4 days at the Century mark or higher! That is more like summers I recall from my youth AND the early days of when I started this almanac. Keep in mind, I started the formal almanac after years of subjective suspicions based on fairly predictable summer weather. We are about to hit 5 days in triple digits. To hear the news, it is like the coming of armageddon. In reality, it is just normal.

7/3 UPDATE - what a lovely surprise. I didn't check but this may be the longest time since the Ol Nutter Almanac has existed between original posting and an update. THAT is how pleasant June has been. The month closes out averaging about 4-5 degrees lower in the average daily high/low than the last 5 year average for the month of June. We may get an additional day or two of century level heat. Things will then back down and finish the week in the 80's as a high.  Over the past 4 BRUTAL years, we average about 4.3 days of 100 or above for June compared to 2 this year. It's a wonderful start if you HATE SUPER HOT weather (yeah, that would be me). July and August are the bears, however, so let's not get too excited!

OK...here we go again - all these years later. Yep, there was a time when a degree of science made this a bit of a predictable tool.

The RADICAL SHIFT - of temps being consistently higher since 2016 have rendered the predictive tool a bit useless

Yet - I remain optimistic.  Usually, based on the temps over Memorial Day weekend, I would call it a 10-15 days of 100 or more. I've bumped it by 10 due to this "hot spell" we have been in.  I am HOPING this is the summer we return to a degree of normalcy

2023 Ol Nutter Almanac    20 t0 25 days predicted...27 actual

2022 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted...49 actual 

2021 Ol Nutter Almanac    25 to 30 days predicted....41 actual
2020 Ol Nutter Almanac    17 to 22 days predicted ...36 actual
2019 Ol Nutter Almanac.   10 days or less.....23 actual
2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual

2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual

2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual

2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual

2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual

2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual