Wednesday, July 18, 2018

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2018





Days Predicted: 11-16
Days to Date:  15

The DAYS

1) 6/3 - 101            2) 6/13 - 101     3) 6/22 - 101      4) 6/23 - 101   5) 6/30 - 103  
6) 7/1 -102       7) 7/9 - 102     8) 7/10 - 100   9)  7/11  - 101  10) 7/12 - 101  
11) 7/14 - 101  12) 7/15 - 100  13) 7/16 - 102  14) 7/17 - 104  15) 7/18 - 105

Update 7/16 - WE ARE TOAST!!! In a couple of ways.  First, we are burning it up here in the valley. Second, the Almanac will again be WOEFULLY wrong. Perhaps there is something to the fact we are in the midst of some climate changes.  This thing used to have a degree of accuracy.  The last few years?.....not so much.  We are in the midst of the worst of it too.  I see another BURNER in front of us today (105?....really? ...is predicted....hottest day so far).  We may get a slight back off but I am POSITIVE July has more fun in store for us. It's only our hottest month of the year....and....yeah... August often likes to kick in a little "heat fun" as well.  We have hit 30 days at 100 degrees or more the last two years.  June wasn't too bad but, if August overachieves again, we will be right back there.


Update 7/1 - June CAN be a lot worse than that. Hello, July! You came in as expected. Nothing smoking on the horizon, though.  4th of July is looking awesome as is the rest of the week. We take the cool when we can get it.

Update 6/17 - June is doing it's  thing.  We have a couple hundies down....and looks like three to four coming by this time next week.  Eeeks.....perhaps Summer will do some early spitting and spare us in July.  Summers may be permanently changing in the valley.

You know the drill - we look at the Memorial Day Weekend weather as our guide

As usual - we will use the reporting by Weather.com as our verification tool.

This year - I am going to have to do some adjusting for "climate change."  The Almanac has missed the mark for 3 years in a row.

We had some cool weather - even a touch of rain on Friday right before the weekend.  Saturday and Sunday were nice and mild.  This was looking like a "10 days or less" call.....the riskiest one that can be made for this valley.....

......but....- AHA!!!!  Monday brought a little reminder that Summer is coming by almost cracking the  century mark!

For that reason - we will be looking at 11-15 days at 100 degrees or more this year.

2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual
2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual
2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual
2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual
2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual
2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual
2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

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