Sunday, September 16, 2018

The Ol Nutter Almanac 2018

Days Predicted: 11-16
Days to Date:  29

The DAYS  (as reported by for Roseville, CA 95678)

1) 6/3 - 101            2) 6/13 - 101     3) 6/22 - 101      4) 6/23 - 101   5) 6/30 - 103  
6) 7/1 -102       7) 7/9 - 102     8) 7/10 - 100   9)  7/11  - 101  10) 7/12 - 101  
11) 7/14 - 101  12) 7/15 - 100  13) 7/16 - 102  14) 7/17 - 104  15) 7/18 - 105
16)  7/19 - 104   17) 7/23 -102   18) 7/24 - 104   19)  7/25 -107 20) 7/26 - 105
21) 7/27 - 100  22) 7/28 - 103  23) 7/31 - 100  24) 8/9 - 102 25) 8/10 - 102  26) 8/11 - 102
 27) 8/17 - 101  28) 8/18 -102  29) 8/19 - 101

FINAL Update 9/16 -
we are going to close it down. What a nice blessing we got at the tail end of this summer. Nothing over 100 since August 19. That's a little strange...but so welcome! The Almanac isn't really calibrated for 30 days of 100...unless Memorial Day weekend is BROILING.

Climate change - involved? Sure. Take a look at this year and the last two compared to the previous 8.  The climate changed the last three years here.  Climates do that. Now, do humans have a hand in that?  I will leave that for all of you to debate...and watch what happens next year.

Update 8/12 - as far as I am concerned, we might as well just GO FOR IT and try to put this year waaaaay into the 30 days of 100 plus.  With the third year of 30 or more lurking, I wonder how many people are ACTING on second homes elsewhere.  I'm starting to look at alternatives!

Update 8/5 - hard to call anything related to all these fires as FORTUNATE but, believe it or not, the smoke cover has appeared on several days to have kept our temperatures down. Weather forecasts, which are pretty solid in summer, were changed last week at the last minute.

July 29, for example, was supposed to be over 100....and that would have fit with the pattern of the week leading up to it (take a glance 7/23-7/27).  The high ended up being only 92.

Four days are decked up this week to get to triple digits. We shall see what we shall see....and...with all the smoke right now....that ain't much.

Update 7/26 - it is OFFICIAL.  We live in a TOILET!!! July has just slaughtered the Almanac....again this year. We are staring at a minimum number of 100+ days of 17 for the month!  Oh....what?...what did you say?....."Nutster, your attitude kind of stinks!"   ONE - thanks for're so kind  TWO - YOU come live in it  THREE - you are right...."we are the champions....we are the champions....." because we are so doggone heat tolerant! You know, as much as this heat sucks, it is waaaaaaaay worse in the humid places......and none of our weather has the ability to kill us.

(WOW!!! Did you see what just happened above? That was kind of like therapy.  I went from "toilet" to "being very fortunate" in just a couple of lines!  Never underestimate the power of HappyingUP!!!)

Update 7/16 - WE ARE TOAST!!! In a couple of ways.  First, we are burning it up here in the valley. Second, the Almanac will again be WOEFULLY wrong. Perhaps there is something to the fact we are in the midst of some climate changes.  This thing used to have a degree of accuracy.  The last few years?.....not so much.  We are in the midst of the worst of it too.  I see another BURNER in front of us today (105?....really? predicted....hottest day so far).  We may get a slight back off but I am POSITIVE July has more fun in store for us. It's only our hottest month of the year....and....yeah... August often likes to kick in a little "heat fun" as well.  We have hit 30 days at 100 degrees or more the last two years.  June wasn't too bad but, if August overachieves again, we will be right back there.

Update 7/1 - June CAN be a lot worse than that. Hello, July! You came in as expected. Nothing smoking on the horizon, though.  4th of July is looking awesome as is the rest of the week. We take the cool when we can get it.

Update 6/17 - June is doing it's  thing.  We have a couple hundies down....and looks like three to four coming by this time next week.  Eeeks.....perhaps Summer will do some early spitting and spare us in July.  Summers may be permanently changing in the valley.

You know the drill - we look at the Memorial Day Weekend weather as our guide

As usual - we will use the reporting by as our verification tool.

This year - I am going to have to do some adjusting for "climate change."  The Almanac has missed the mark for 3 years in a row.

We had some cool weather - even a touch of rain on Friday right before the weekend.  Saturday and Sunday were nice and mild.  This was looking like a "10 days or less" call.....the riskiest one that can be made for this valley.....

......but....- AHA!!!!  Monday brought a little reminder that Summer is coming by almost cracking the  century mark!

For that reason - we will be looking at 11-15 days at 100 degrees or more this year.

2018 Ol Nutter Almanac   11-16 predicted.....29 actual
2017 Ol Nutter Almanac   10-14 predicted.....34 actual
2016 Ol Nutter Almanac  15-18 predicted .....30 actual
2015 Ol Nutter Almanac  12 or less predicted...16 actual
2014 Ol Nutter Almanac  11-13 predicted......14 actual
2013 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less prediceted....12 actual
2012 Ol Nutter Almanac  13 or less predicted...15 actual
2011 Ol Nutter Almanac  10 or less predicted....7 actual
2010 Ol Nutter Almanac 13 or less predicted.....7 actual
2009 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual
2008 Ol Nutter Almanac 10-15 predicted.........15 actual

No comments: